Reduced SIR Model of COVID-19 Pandemic

We propose a mathematical model of COVID-19 pandemic preserving an optimal balance between the adequate description by SIR and simplicity practical estimates. As base equations, we derive two-parameter nonlinear first-order ordinary differential equations with retarded time argument, applicable to any community (country, city, etc.).The presented examples modeling development depending on two parameters: possible dissemination infection one virus carrier probability contamination healthy population member in contact infected per unit time, e.g., day, is qualitative agreement dynamics pandemic. The proposed compared model.